PRELIMINARYVERSIONBowtieMethodologyManualRevision15(27-Mar-2015)Pleasenotethatthisdocumentationispreliminaryandsubjecttochangewithoutnotice.ThelatestversionofthisdocumentcanbeobtainedviaCGE(e-mailsupport@cgerisk.com).Page2of64PRELIMINARYVERSIONCommentsPleasedirectanycomments,questionsandotherfeedbacktoArjanZipp(a.zipp@cgerisk.com).Copyright©IPBankB.V.2004-2013.BowTieXPisaregisteredtrademarkofIPBankB.V.Subjecttochangewithoutnotice.Allrightsreserved.TermsandconditionsforusingthisdocumentThecopyrightofthissoftwaremanualandtrainingguide(thedocument)belongstoIPBankB.V.whohasempoweredCGERiskManagementSolutionsB.V.toprovidethisdocumenttothemarket.Thisdocumentand/oranypartofthedocumentmayonlybeusedfortrainingintheBowTieXPsoftwaretoolandmethodology.Itmaynotbeusedformethodology-onlytrainingortrainingwithrespecttoanyothertoolormethodology.Thisdocumentand/oranypartofthedocumentmustalwaysbeaccompaniedbythesetermsandconditions.Withoutthem,anypossessionand/oruseofthismaterialisillegal.Thisdocumentmaynotbepublishedonapublicdownloadlocation;ValueAddedResellers(VARs)mayprovidethisdocumentinprintand/orinPDFformatonlyandatnocost.OnlyVARsmaydistributethisdocumentandonlytotheirleadsandcustomers,noneofwhommaybeacompetitorofCGEand/orIPBank.ThisdocumentmayonlybeprovidedbyofficialVARsoftheBowTieXPsoftwaretool.CheckthelistofVARsonthewww.bowtiexp.comwebsitebeforeusingthisdocument.IfthisdocumenthasnotbeenprovidedtoyoubyanofficialVAR,pleasereportthistousimmediatelybye-mailonsupport@bowtiexp.com.PRELIMINARYVERSIONPage3of64“Allmodelsarefalse,butsomeareuseful.”-GeorgeBox-Page4of64PRELIMINARYVERSIONTableofContents1Introduction................................................................................................................................................................71.1.Purposeandstructureofthisdocument............................................................................................................71.2.General...............................................................................................................................................................81.3.Stepone-Identifyhazards.................................................................................................................................81.4.Steptwo–identifytopevents............................................................................................................................81.5.Stepthree–identifythreats...............................................................................................................................91.6.Stepfour–identifyconsequences......................................................................................................................91.7.Stepfiveandsix–identifypreventiveandrecoverybarriers.............................................................................91.8.Stepsevenandeight–identifyescalationfactorsandescalationfactorbarriers............................................101.9.Nextstepafterthebasicbowtie.......................................................................................................................112Discussionofrelatedmethods..................................................................................................................................122.1.Historyandrisetopopularity............
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