200090605_HKIE_Bowtie.pdfVIP专享VIP免费原创优质

Bow-tieModellingingEffectiveSafetyRiskControlLisaShiSeniorConsultant5June2009TechnicalSeminarforHKIEandHKARMSLLOYD’SREGISTERRAILObjectives•Toappreciatethebow-tieconceptanditsunderlyingrelationshipwiththeriskmanagementsystemriskmanagementsystem•Tosharethekeyelementsforeffectivesafetyriskcontrol•Toillustratethekeystepsofconstructingbow-tiemodelandhowitcanbeusedtostrengthentheexistingsafetymanagementsystemTechnicalSeminarforHKIEandHKARMSLLOYD’SREGISTERRAILCommonRiskTerminologies•Hazard:Anysituationthathasapotentialtocauseharm•Risk=Frequency/ProbabilityxSeverity•Riskmanagementistheprocessof:Riskmanagementistheprocessof:•Makingdecisionsaboutacceptingoralteringrisks.•RestrictingandmaintainingriskswithintolerablelimitsatproportionatecostwhereeliminationofrisksisnotpossibleproportionatecostwhereeliminationofrisksisnotpossibleTechnicalSeminarforHKIEandHKARMSLLOYD’SREGISTERRAILRiskManagementisabout…•Whatcangowrong?•Howbadcanitget?•Howoften?Howoften?•Isitacceptable?Howcanwepreventrecurrenceofincidentbasedonlatestavailabletechnology?TechnicalSeminarforHKIEandHKARMSLLOYD’SREGISTERRAILCommonHazardIdentificationTechnique•HAZardandOPerabilityStudies(HAZOP)SttdWhtIFThi(SWIFT)•StructuredWhat-IFTechnique(SWIFT)•FailureModesandEffectsAnalysis(FMEA)•FailureModes,EffectsandCriticalityAnalysis(FMECA)•FaultTreeAnalysis(FTA)FaultTreeAnalysis(FTA)TechnicalSeminarforHKIEandHKARMSLLOYD’SREGISTERRAILWhydoyouneedamodel?•Satisfyinglegislativerequirements•Meetingclientoperationalneeds•Complyingwithinternationalstandardsorgoodpractices•EvaluatingdesignoptionsAddiifift•Addressingspecificsafetyconcern•Supportingfrequencyandconsequenceestimation•Demonstrationofaslowasreasonablypracticable(ALARP)•Identifyingsafetycriticalitemsandsystems•Identifyingsafetycriticalitemsandsystems•PreventincidentfromrecurrenceetcTechnicalSeminarforHKIEandHKARMSLLOYD’SREGISTERRAILSelectionofApproachandLevelofDetails•Objective/subjective•Simple/complex•Technical/non-technical•One-offassessment/continualimprovementQlitti/titti/ititti•Qualitative/quantitative/semi-quantitative•Lifecycleapproach•Novelty•Uncertainty•Uncertainty•Stakeholdersconcern•Costandbusinessfactors•OrganisationstructureOrganisationstructureTechnicalSeminarforHKIEandHKARMSLLOYD’SREGISTERRAILSelectionofApproach•“Tomakeademonstrationmeanstoshow,justifyormakethecase/argumentthroughtheinformationgiven”•“Youshouldclearlyidentifyinthesafetyreportallsafetycriticaleventsandtheassociatedinitiators.Safetycriticaleventsarethosethatdominatethecontributiontorisk,sotheyshouldbeidentifiedbyyourriskanalysis”•“Safetycriticaleventsarekeytoidentifyingsuitablecontrolandprotectionmeasuresforpreventinghazardouseventsorlimitingtheirconsequences.measuresforpreventinghazardouseventsorlimitingtheirconsequences.However,thefailureoftheseprotectionmeasuresmustalsobeconsideredinassessingwhethertheresidualrisksareALARPorwhethermoreneedstobedone.”[HSEGuidanceonPreparingSafetyReport1999]TechnicalSeminarforHKIEandHKARMSLLOYD’SREGISTERRAILCommonDifficultiesandPitfalls•Eachtoolhasitsstrengthsandweaknesses,andisnotalwaysobviouswhichtoselectwhichtoselect•Hardtoselectasingletooltosatisfyallneedse.g.satisfyingbothlegislativerequirementsandoperationalneedsatatime•Problemsincommunicatingriskswithseniormanagement,frontlineandthepublicTechnical...