Session_II_-_1_EU_Joint_Research_Centre_-_Serkan_Girgin_-_Analyzing_the_risks_of_chemical_accidents__including_natural-hazard-triggering_technological_disaster.pdfVIP专享VIP免费原创优质

1TheEuropeanCommission’sscienceandknowledgeserviceJointResearchCentreAnalysingtherisksofchemicalaccidentsincludingthosecausedbynaturalhazards(NATECH)SerkanGirgin,Ph.D.LucianoFabbri,Ph.D.2ChemicalAccidentRiskAnalysis•Riskanalysisisaprerequisiteforunderstandinglikelihoodandseverityofpossiblechemicalaccidentsoriginatingfromhazardousindustrialactivities.•Theanalysisallows:•Identificationofcriticalequipment.•Evaluationofeffectivenessofpreventionandmitigationmeasures.•Prioritizationofsafetymeasuresneededtoreducetherisk.•Betterdecisionmakingprocess.IEC300-3-9(1995)IECGuide73(2002)3RiskAnalysisProcessHAZARDIDENTIFICATIONACCIDENTCONSEQUENCEANALYSISACCIDENTFREQUENCYANALYSISWhatcangowrong?Howlikely?Howdangerous?consequencefrequencyUnacceptableALARAAcceptable4AccidentScenarios5PrerequisitesofChemicalAccidentRiskAnalysis•Understandingofthefundamentalsofriskanalysis•Knowledgeonindustrialunitsandprocesses•Knowledgeonaccidentscenarios•Knowledgeonhazardousconsequences•Natech:Knowledgeonnaturalhazardimpacts•Natech:KnowledgeonNatechaccidentscenarios•Methodsandmodels•Tools6AccidentDamageAnalysisModule•ADAMisasoftwarespecificallydevelopedtoassisttheCompetentAuthoritiesoftheEUMemberStatesandNeighbouringCountriesinquicklyassessingthepotentialconsequencesofachemicalaccident.•Itcalculatesthephysicaleffectsofanaccidentintermsofthermalradiation,overpressureortoxicconcentrationthatmayresultfromthelossofcontainmentofaflammableortoxicsubstance.•Desktopandonlineversionsareavailableforgovernmentalandresearchorganisationsbyrequest.7ADAM:Methodology8ADAM:Features•Numeroussourceandconsequencemodels•Instantaneous&finitedurationreleases•Poolformation&evaporation•Poolfire(ModifiedTNO;Shokri&Beyler;Mudan)•Jetfire(Chamberlain;Johnson;Cook)•Fireball•VCE(EquivalentTNT;TNOmultienergy;BTS)•Toxicdispersion(SLAB,time-dependent,w/rainout)•Fastanalysis•Fine-tuned•Optimised•Advancedvisualization9ADAM:Output•Sourcetermgraphs•Iso-effectcontours•Consequencemaps•Lethalitycurves/maps•GISdata•Tabulardata10NatechRiskAnalysis•Characteristicsthatdifferfromordinarychemicalaccidents•Simultaneousreleasesfrommultiplesourcesoverwideareas•Extremeenvironmentalconditions•Malfunctioningofaccidentpreventionmeasures•Unavailabilityoflifelinesneededforaccidentmitigation•Competitionforscarceresponseresources•Hazardousreleaseshamperingemergencyresponseactivities•Non-functionalorinappropriatestandardcivilprotectionmeasures•Necessaryadditionalriskanalysissteps•Characterizationofnaturalhazardseverity•Identificationofvulnerablecriticalequipment•Estimationofseverityandlikelihoodofnatural-hazarddamage•EstimationofpotentialNatechaccidentscenarios•Analysisofconsequencesconsideringsimultaneityandabnormality11RapidNatechRiskAnalysisandMappingSystem•RAPID-Nisaweb-based,publiclyavailabledecision-supportsystemforNatechriskanalysisandmapping.•Unitesnatural-hazardimpactassessment,Natechscenariodevelopmentandconsequenceanalysisinonetool.•Featuresamodular,extensibleandcollaborativearchitecturefacilitatingdataentryandquickanalysis.•Usersarefrom>120institutionsglobally.12RAPID-N:MethodologyConsequenceDamageNaturalHazardNaturalHazardParametersHazardMap-Probabilistic-DeterministicSiteDataProcessUnitDataHazardParameterEstimationMethodsDamageProbabilityFragilityCurvesConsequenceAnalysisNatechRiskRiskReceptorDat...